Good Morning. Budget Day in Westminster is always an exciting moment, but one of the many unusual features of today’s statement is that Rishi Sunak will deliver it several weeks after announcing its biggest financial component. NS £12bn per year health and social care levy The one unveiled in September was almost certainly more significant than any of the single tax measures we’ll hear about today.
Another feature of this budget is that it was carried forward by an unprecedented amount of pre-briefings by the Treasury. We already have 19 press releases about what will happen in it.
So, what’s important or memorable is the statement we’re making this afternoon? There are probably two aspects that will stand out.
First of all, don’t despair, there will be news. This is an expense review, as well as a budget, and it means that we will learn a lot more about departmental spending than a general budget. In addition, for presentation reasons, the Chancellor wants a general surprise for MPs and the country at the end of his speech. There has been much speculation this morning about what it will be like, and at today’s event Greater Manchester Labor Mayor Andy Burnham suggested it could come as a U-turn at £20-a-week. universal credit cut
Second, as or more important than the many announcements on taxes and spending will be the overall story that Sunak wants to tell the country. He gave his first budget in March 2020, but within a week he had to effectively tear it down due to the covid pandemic and his handling of that crisis has been dominated by his vice-chancellor ever since. This will be the first budget he has written without the dominance of Covid, anticipating a more normal economic environment. This will be the moment of definition. With a photo of Nigel Lawson on display in the study, Sunak presents himself as a fiscal conservative. But he works for a prime minister whose economic model is more angel tooth than Milton Friedman’s, and so the budget must address those tensions.
As Rowena Mason reports in her overnight preview, Sunak will accommodate Boris Johnson’s innate euphoria in her speech by declaring that we are in an age of optimism. Sunak will say:
From today’s budget, the work of preparing for the new economy after Kovid has started.
An economy of higher wages, higher skills and increased productivity.
Strong public services, vibrant communities and safe roads.
An economy apt for a new era of optimism.
This is the strong economy of the future.
For millions of people facing rising living costs, it can feel like more than anything.
The cabinet meeting was held at 8.30 am today and Sunak is giving budget information to his colleagues. Here is the agenda for the day.
12:00 pm: Boris Johnson confronts Siri Keer starrer in PMQ.
12.30 p.m: Rishi Sunak Provides budget.
1.30 am: for office Budget Responsibility October 2021 publishes economic and financial outlook
2.30 a.m. BST: Richard Hughes, Office for the President Budget Responsibility, OBR holds a briefing about the budget forecasts.
I’ll be writing blogs all day with my colleague Graeme Verdon. We’ll cover the construction of the speech, the statement itself, and then focus on response and analysis, and specifically try to identify the little surprises that the craze may have sparked.
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