Therefore, the atmosphere is continuously changing in Russia’s favor. And the easy option of defeating Putin through Ukraine is beginning to close.
But it’s not just Russia. It is China that really poses the more strategic, era-defining challenge.
Both countries have contempt for the West, reject Western standards, and want to see the West weakened. Both dislike international scrutiny of their domestic affairs and both feel threatened by the rules-based order.
However, China has bigger plans. It wishes to assert global leadership, economic dominance, technological edge as well as its regional and territorial claims on the South China Sea and Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “Now is the time for us to take center stage in the world and make greater contributions to mankind.” And to that end, China pursues a multipronged strategy that includes economic projects like the Belt and Road Initiative as well as a strong military posture.
Like Putin, Xi’s strategy examines the soft foundations of Western weaknesses. A new Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis now presents a united front in opposition to Western policies and influence in global affairs.
Moreover, they now have a global institution – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – which Putin and Xi created in 2001. The world’s largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, it covers approximately 80 percent of Eurasia and 40 percent of the world’s population. , and as of 2021, its combined GDP was about 20 percent of global GDP. With India, Iran and 20 other members participating, it is fundamentally anti-West.
On the current trajectory, the world is thus set to split into two spheres of competing interests. When we were distracted by complacency the world turned upside down. And as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine contributed to UK inflation reaching double figures, it underlined how much our economic security depends on our national security, and vice versa.
Now, as Britain moves on a war footing, our growing concern over the threat of wider conflict is matched by the expectation that we will, once again, need to upgrade our defense architecture – and stand in harm’s way. Will be one of the first to happen.