New Delhi: India’s massive general election entered its second phase on Friday, which analysts widely believe will likely set the tone for the rest of the election.
More than 968 million voters are registered to cast ballots in the world’s most populous country, where outgoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party are eyeing a third consecutive five-year term in power.
Modi, who was targeting 400 seats for his BJP-led National Democratic Alliance before the elections, is being challenged by an alliance of two dozen opposition parties: the Congress party-led Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance, or Bharat . Which has ruled the country for almost 45 years since independence in 1947.
The first phase of voting was held on 19 April. Voting will last for six weeks, with results expected on June 4. Other voting dates will be May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1.
Analysts say the second phase of India’s elections will define the dynamics of the remaining five phases.
In the first phase, 66 per cent of those eligible to vote cast their vote, compared to 70 per cent in 2019.
Umakant Lakhera said, “The message sent from the first phase of the elections is that there is a silent wave against the BJP and the decline in voting percentage has indicated that the BJP will slip in its strongholds in North India, especially Uttar Pradesh.” a political commentator in Delhi told Arab News.
“If the perceived apathy of the voters towards the elections in general and towards the BJP in particular continues, it will be time for the opposition Congress party to strengthen and mobilize its resources to increase its reach and capitalize on the anti-BJP sentiment. There’s an opportunity.”
There are a total of 28 states and eight union territories in India. In some areas the voting process is completed in a single day, and in others it is spread over several stages.
Voting took place in 21 states and union territories last week, with about 169 million people eligible to vote. In the second phase, more than 160 million people are expected to vote in 13 states and union territories.
On Friday, 1,202 candidates contested for 88 out of 543 seats in the lower house of Parliament. In the last phase, voting was held on 102 seats.
More than half of the 88 seats were in the southern states of Kerala and Karnataka and the north-western state of Rajasthan.
The party or alliance that wins at least 272 seats will form the government.
‘Mini General Election’
The principal leader of the opposition coalition and Congress member is Rahul Gandhi, who is the son of Rajiv Gandhi, grandson of Indira Gandhi and great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, all of whom have served as Prime Ministers of India.
But the Congress hit a historic low when it was ousted from power by the BJP in the 2014 general vote and won its second-lowest of 52 seats in 2019.
Gandhi is seeking re-election from Kerala’s Wayanad, the only major state that has never elected a BJP member of Parliament, and where Modi’s party was not the main rival but has been trying to make inroads since last year. Is.
Apart from Gandhi, the main contenders are Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India and K.K. This is Surendran.
Political scientist Prof. Yes. Gopa Kumar said, “Kerala has always seen bipolar politics, but the BJP is trying to make it a triangular contest this time and this election will test whether a third force can find a place in Kerala or not.” and advisor to the Kerala-based Center for Public Policy Research told Arab News.
“The second phase will test whether the BJP will continue to have the stigma of being an outsider in Kerala or not, whether the stigma of not winning a seat in Kerala will continue or not.”
Another test for the Congress would be away from Kerala in the north, where elections were also due in several states.
“The second phase is a mini general election. What is at stake is whether the Congress is going to challenge the dominance of the BJP in north Indian states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or not,” Kumar said.
“The contest is becoming serious from now on. For Congress, it is a question of survival as they have to prove that they can defeat BJP and survive as a major force.
Although surveys show Modi will easily win a majority in Parliament, his oft-repeated target of 400 seats ahead of the elections has not been cited since the first phase last week.
Asad Rizvi, an analyst based in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and a BJP stronghold, said that despite the strategy of polarization on religious lines, the party’s performance was not as good as expected.
“After the first phase of elections, the prevailing perception is that the BJP has not performed well in its strongholds in Uttar Pradesh, so the BJP will find it difficult to consolidate its core voters to retain seats,” he told Arab News. Will happen.” ,
“The second phase is also important which will test whether BJP’s communal agenda is working or not.”