It is often said that conspiracy theories have, for many of us, taken the place of religion in our lives – a convenient way to add some meaning or purpose to the randomness of life. The idea that some group is behind everything that happens, even if they are doing it with nefarious intentions, is more convincing than everything being out of control and out of control.
Almost three years into the coronavirus pandemic, it seems like there are similar aspects as we talk about managing life with Covid. Be it “Independent SEZ” in UK or “People’s CDC” in USA, there is no dearth of groups across the globe who hold the policy failures of the government responsible for the spread of Covid and the deaths due to it.
They are clearly right, at least to some extent: there is huge variation in both infection and death rates across countries – but the longer life continues in a world with Covid, the less clear things become.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the rapidly spreading disaster across China. The country where the pandemic originated had an astonishingly low case rate for its first two years – by imposing restrictions of a severity that would be unimaginable in a democracy, at enormous economic cost to itself (and widely at substantial knock-on cost) world).
The cost may have been enormous, but the results – at least for a time – were hard to dispute. While thousands and then hundreds of thousands of people died first in various countries around the world, China had barely any cases, and managed to reopen with a semblance of normal life long before other countries. Inevitably, people began calling on other countries to attempt China’s “zero Covid” response, a policy that President-for-Life Xi Jinping has made its flagship.
The problem is, you can only shut off for so long, and can only shut off the outside world for so long. Faced with growing internal discontent over apparently endless tightening restrictions and shutdowns – which may be necessary for months or years for China’s approach to work – the Communist Party has only accepted defeat and allowed Covid to an extent. Took the drastic step of tearing down, even Donald Trump didn’t. no face.
China has chosen to embrace denial to a surprising extent: as the government records few or zero Covid deaths, video footage shows morgues filled with bodies and hospitals completely overwhelmed by severe Covid cases. China appears to be making no effort to “flatten the peak” – so that health services do not have so many patients that even cases that survive cause death due to lack of treatment capacity.
Adding to this is China’s failure to vaccinate its population – driven by a number of factors, including China’s decision to rely on Sinovac, rather than more effective Western-produced vaccines. Added to this was the apparent contradiction between an ongoing “zero covid” strategy and a vaccine primarily aimed at improving the symptoms of those who catch it.
Trying to gauge the true scale of the now widespread Covid wave in China will be very difficult, if not impossible. When the government outright lies and hides its figures, and it is difficult for public health researchers to act autonomously, it becomes a matter of guesswork.
It is clear that to date no one will advocate replicating China’s actual policy decisions, but it is still a common belief among some quarters that some version of “zero Covid” is an admirable policy goal – and that the lockdown Still the table should continue, even as public and political sentiment for such actions (barring a massive increase in cases) subsides.
The problem is that in general terms it is easier to call on governments to aim to eliminate Covid than to allow it to become endemic. It is notoriously difficult to propose policies that could actually make this possible – the “People’s CDC” coalition in the US dismisses the question altogether, saying that it is not for them to suggest such steps. .
That may sound reasonable in a nutshell, but it’s like saying you want the government to make the country carbon negative by 2030, insisting it is possible, but making no suggestions for how to get there. Is. It sounds good in a moment, but it falls apart as soon as you think about it.
Covid still spreads among vaccinated populations, and it still kills some portion of people who catch it – so the idea that we could be locked down while waiting for a vaccine is now worth considering. In a world where Covid will always be present, a lockdown against it can really only be justified in the context of preventing health systems from being overwhelmed.
In the absence of that prospect, it is unclear what other public health measures are for: permanent mandatory masking might slow the spread of Covid, but it would be unpopular, and it would still spread. It is no longer understood that catching it later (when you are vaccinated / when treatment exists) is better than catching it now.
In a connected world, a highly infectious disease arriving in more than one country is bound to become endemic. Most of us had not even heard of Covid before the game was lost.
Many of us may be looking at China with a selfish eye, worrying that this means new lockdowns, new variants, or similar misery. No one knows the honest answer. Covid didn’t go here or anywhere in the world – it’s here and spreading, so even testing or banning people coming from China outright would serve no real purpose.
Similarly, there is as yet no clear evidence that the covid spreading widely in China is a significant new variant – given that the population is not vaccinated and has not been exposed to covid. There is no need for a new version to spread rapidly.
On one level, we want Covid to be a problem that is in someone’s control, even if they are managing it badly – it gives us a sense that the world could be different, or better . The reality with Covid is that all options were bad in different ways and to varying degrees – and none of them would have resulted in a Covid-free world. Worst of all, perhaps, is that it’s nobody’s fault — a scapegoat right now would be wonderful.