While it appears that omicron The COVID-19 wave may be nearing its end, with one model forecasting a grim future for the United States, modeling that 58,000 to 305,000 more Americans will succumb to the virus in the next two months.
Estimates shared during a white House Briefing Tuesday estimated as many as 305,000 Americans could die from Covid between now and when the wave is expected to subside by mid-March.
This will likely bring the US total Covid death toll – sitting at more than 853,000 as of Tuesday afternoon – to more than a million, a feat no other country in the world has reached.
The conjecture comes despite mounting data showing that the Omicron variant is less severe than its predecessors. data disclosed by Centers for Disease Control And Prevention showed last week that a person infected with Omicron was 91 percent less likely to die than someone who contracted it from Delta.
CDC director Dr Rochelle Valensky said last week that the delta variant was responsible for the recent increase in US deaths, despite still making up a minimal proportion of cases. The Omicron variant makes up 99.5 percent of active cases in the US, according to data released Tuesday by the agency.
A projection released Tuesday by the White House estimates that between 58,000 and 305,000 Americans will die between now and when the omicron-fueled Covid wave subsides in a few months. If the more dire expectations prove to be true, the US will eclipse a total of one million deaths by the start of this year. Image: Health care workers cover the body of a deceased COVID patient in Los Angeles, California, on December 14
The CDC reports that the Omicron variant (purple) makes up 99.5% of Covid cases in the US, while the delta (orange) makes up only 0.3%. Last week, CDC Director Rochelle Valensky said Delta was still responsible for the increase in the US COVID death rate.
The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the US has been trending upward since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on January 17 – down from a peak of 3,300 in January 2021.
Cases have risen in recent weeks, reaching an average of 800,000 daily cases earlier this week. The lack of testing, the prevalence of asymptomatic cases and many rapid tests going unreported mean that the figure is likely to be even higher.
The spike in cases, fortunately, has also not translated into a rapid increase in deaths from the highly infectious strain.
Despite indications that Omicron causes mild illness on average, unprecedented levels of infection are spreading in the country, with cases still rising in many states, meaning many vulnerable people will become seriously ill.
Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, said, ‘Because of how contagious Omicron is, many people are still going to die.
‘Unfortunately it’s going to get worse before it gets better.’
In Johnson County, Kansas, morgues are starting to run out of space, said Dr. Sanami Areola, director of the Department of Health.
More than 30 residents have died in the county this year, most of whom have not been vaccinated.
But the notion that the generally less severe form can still kill thousands of people is hard for health experts to tell.
The math of this – that a small percentage of a very high number of infections can lead to a very high number of deaths – is hard to imagine.
Overall, you’re going to see more sick people, even though you as an individual are less likely to get sick,’ said Catriona Shea of Pennsylvania State University, who co-leads a team that tackles several pandemics. The model pulls together and shares the estimate with the White House.
Shea said the wave of deaths in the United States would peak in late January or early February.
By early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the Delta peak, and possibly even surpass the previous US peak in deaths last year.
Some unknown portion of these deaths are in people infected with the delta variant, but experts say Omicron is also claiming lives.
“It is Omicron driven,” Shea said of the oncoming wave of deaths.
The combined model projects 1.5 million Americans will be hospitalized and 191,000 will die from mid-December to mid-March.
Taking into account the uncertainty in the models, US deaths during the Omicron wave could range from 58,000 to 305,000.
Mark Lipsich of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and scientific director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Forecasting Centers said that overburdened hospitals may also contribute to more deaths.
“In places with extremely low staffing and overloading of patients, as medical professionals are telling us, the quality of care begins to suffer,” Lipsich said.
‘It can also lead to higher mortality, but it is not in any model that I am aware of.’
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