Apple’s App Store growth is slowing

Tim Cook at WWDC21 on June 7, 2021.

Source: Apple

every January, apple Apple releases the total amount of money earned by App Store developers since 2008, a data point that allows analysts and Apple investors to estimate how much money the App Store makes.

This year’s revelations suggest that the growth of Apple’s App Store has stagnated.

apple tuesday Told It has paid developers $320 billion $260 billion Like last year, a jump of $60 billion. Developers receive between 70% and 85% of gross sales, depending on whether they qualify for Apple’s reduced rate.

If all developers paid Apple a 30% cut, Apple’s App Store could make more than $85 billion in 2022, based on a CNBC analysis. If Apple’s commission were all 15%, the App Store’s estimated gross would be reduced by about $70 billion.

This is the same amount of sales that Apple suggested with last year data pointThat’s when the company said it had paid developers $60 billion in 2021.

This is a rough estimate which may vary as it is not clear how many developers pay a lower 15% deductibleversus a 30% cut, and because the figures are rounding up Apple shares.

Attempts to extrapolate App Store business size from developer earnings are incorrect, Apple said, because commissions range from 15% to 30%, and the vast majority of developers pay lower commissions under the App Store Small Business Program which is a Provides a reduced deduction for app makers with less than $1 million in gross income per year.

Apple said in its release that 2022 was a “record” year for the App Store, and projected 900 million subscriptions in 2021, up from 745 million subscriptions. First-party services such as Apple TV+ and Music.

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But Tuesday’s figures underscore that App Store growth slowed last year, which is important to investors because the App Store is a key part of Apple’s services business, and a profit engine for the company.

Apple’s services business to grow to $78.1 billion in FY2022, a 14% increase. But it was a significant deceleration from the 27% growth the division had posted in FY21.

Apple is tackling tough comparisons in 2021 and 2020 to boost app usage and sales as people buy games and software while riding covid pandemic, Apple also faces consumer uncertainty around the world as interest rates rise and economists worry about a possible recession.

Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring has been following the slow growth of the App Store. The App Store’s net revenue declined for six straight months from June to November, before rising again in December.

Woodring wrote in a note this month that app sales would pick up in 2023 as year-over-year comparisons would be easier, and that Apple would begin to benefit from price increases for some apps in international markets late last year.

Woodring wrote, “While App Store growth remains near its lowest level in history, and we acknowledge that global consumer challenges remain, we look forward to continuing to improve the growth trajectory after bottoming out in September.” encouraged.”

Correction: Apple said in its release that 2022 was a “record” year for the App Store, and projected 900 million subscriptions in 2021, up from 745 million subscriptions. The version from a year ago was misquoted.