Jamie Detmer is Opinion Editor at POLITICO Europe.
Immediately after the invasion of Ukraine began, Western countries began imposing financial and commercial sanctions on Russia. Their goal was not only to punish Russia and disrupt President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, but also to hope that the resulting economic hardship could persuade ordinary Russians to revolt, or prompt a coup by Kremlin insiders or oligarchs. Can give
However, nearly a year later, what a Russian pollster dubbed a “broad consensus” in support of Putin’s war is showing few signs of any significant cracks. There are visible divisions and infighting in both the Kremlin and the political-military establishment over how to conduct the war – not the future of the Russian leader – and public support for the war remains high.
In a recent survey, Lev Gudkov’s Levada Center – currently the only independent opinion research organization in Russia – found that 53 percent of the respondents Subscribe to the idea that Putin’s “special military operation” is proceeding successfully. and in another survey Last month, a majority of respondents told Levada pollsters that “every real man should serve in the military.”
“State propaganda is still managing to create a broad consensus,” Gudkov lamented in an interview.
Naturally, some have questioned the credibility of any type of opinion poll coming out of Putin’s Russia. How reliable can the responses really be? If told out of fear that a single word out of place might leak out and come knocking on doors late at night, are they voting what they really think?
Gudkov dismisses these questions of reliability, as his interviewers are well trained, conduct lengthy interviews and try to ensure reliability. “That people are not afraid to answer is a completely wrong notion,” he said. And his overall bleak conclusion is that “the Russians have little pity for the Ukrainians.”
The absence of large-scale anti-war demonstrations in Russia appears to confirm Levada’s findings. Any demonstrations that took place last year were sporadic and much smaller in size than the anti-Putin protests seen from 2011 to 2013 and 2017 to 2019. The afternoon of the invasion, for example, the largest demonstrations took place in Moscow, where 2,000 demonstrators turned out, and around 1,000 in St. Petersburg. But elsewhere across Russia, no city boasts more than a few hundred.
Russian opposition leaders attribute the lack of serious dissent on the street to a crackdown on dissidents and critics of the Kremlin and harsh prison terms. They say that with repression and intimidation, the shutdown of independent news outlets and widespread censorship of social media platforms, it is a conspiracy to stifle all critical voices and disrupt the organization of protest.
Sure, these are all possible factors.
Therefore, there is also the flight of possibly 700,000 Russians from Putin, his wars and conscription since the invasion began. Most of those who fled have headed for Turkey and the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan, and their self-imposed exile has undoubtedly weakened and disorientated the opposition inside Russia – although many of the young men who have fled since September It is likely that he did so because he was afraid of being recruited, not because he wanted to make a political statement.
But considering all these reasons, according to Ukraine’s MP Lesia Vasilenko, the absence of any serious opposition to Putin’s war within Russia is another proof.
Vasilenko believes that many Russians likely agree with Putin that Ukraine is not really a nation and that there remains a deeply chauvinistic attitude among Russians toward their neighbor, having bought into the historical narrative. That Ukraine is irrevocably part of the “Russia World” – a story shaped, enforced and curated by Tsars and Soviet commissars over centuries, and reinforced by Putin and his regime for the last 20 years.
Most of the Russian mothers and wives who expressed anger on social media about the partial mobilization ordered by Putin in September focused their criticism on substandard military equipment, inadequate winter clothing, the abysmal training of recruits and the incompetence of battlefield commanders – they Did not take issue with the war per se.
Of course, for some it may be a ploy to avoid imprisonment for questioning or denouncing Putin’s war, but for others, it seems to be a case of “don’t take my son” rather than “stop the war”. Is.
Speaking by video link from the World Economic Forum on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced Russia as a terrorist state and urged Russians to “open their eyes”. He appealed to – or reprimanded – the Russians on the first few occasions in order to stir them into action to oppose the war. On New Year’s Eve, he told Russian public That Putin “hides behind you and burns your country and your future. No one will ever forgive you for terror. No one in the world will forgive you for this. Ukraine will never forgive.
And back in September, Ukraine’s leader urged Russians to oppose partial mobilization, which called for more than 300,000 reservists. “55,000 Russian soldiers died in these six months of war. , , what you want more? No? Then protest, ”said Zelensky.
no avail.
But that doesn’t surprise Vasilenko – according to him, even Russian dissidents are not immune to extremism. And she accuses him of complicity in Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine over the years. “They largely ignored the eight years of war waged against us even before the February invasion. The war has been going on since 2014, and where were they?” He asked.
“To be a Russian we can trust,” Vasilenko said, “you really have to prove that you’re not Now against your own regime in Russia, but you oppose the war in Ukraine and you stand up for all the values Ukraine is defending – namely territorial integrity, Ukraine’s independence within internationally recognized borders.
You must prove that “you accept the culture of Ukraine; You recognize the tradition of Ukraine; You recognize the history of Ukraine, which Russia has denied for so long; And you recognize our language, which they would prefer we not speak,” he added. “There is no gray zone.”