Which is all well and good for him! But the Democratic strategist – below House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – doesn’t have the luxury and Suozzi’s retirement is only the latest in a series of body squabbles for the party’s majority chances in recent weeks.
Suozhi is the 18th Democrat in the House who plans to retire or run for higher office in 2022. In contrast, Republicans have only 11 retiring members. For context, at this point in the 2020 election cycle, only eight Democrats left it, compared to 20 Republicans.
The more you dig into the numbers, the worse they look for Democrats.
Of the 18 Democratic Open seats, fully a third are in districts where former President Donald Trump won or lost (5 points or less) in the 2020 election. And, that total doesn’t even include seats like Suzy – where President Joe Biden won by 11 points in 2020 but where Hillary Clinton won by only 6 points four years ago.
Remember that Biden led Virginia by 10 points in 2020, while Republican Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin won the state by 2 points earlier this month. This means that the number of voters in Virginia in 2021 was nearly 12 points more Republican than in 2020. If this trend holds up, there are Democratic seats as a whole – including Suozhi – that may well be in danger.
(Note: Democrats control the redistribution process in New York. And the line-drawer had designs on pinching Republicans—notably in Lee Zeldin’s first district and Andrew Garbarino’s second—on Long Island. Suozzi An open seat in the third district of the U.S. may well complicate that plan.)
Equally troubling for Pelosi and her colleagues is that the retirement rate within their ranks has increased significantly in recent weeks.
In the past 13 days, five House Democrats have said they will retire or run for higher office next year. It began on November 16 with the retirement of Jackie Spear of California, followed two days later by GK Butterfield of North Carolina, and two days later by Eddie Bernice Johnson of Texas. Two days later, Vermont Representative Peter Welch said he was running for the state’s open Senate seat. And then, on Monday, came Suozhi’s verdict.
It is important not to lump all of these retirements into one gulp – as the circumstances affecting the decisions of most of these members abound. For example, Welch has kept his eye on Sen. Pat Leahy’s Senate seat for years and was always on the run when it opened. Butterfield found himself—thanks to Republican raiders in the state—in a very difficult district. Bernice Johnson, 85, was rumored to be a potential retirement for the past several election cycles.
so there isn’t One This is why all these Democrats are suddenly retiring. But, you can be pretty sure that the sum total of their retirement impacts their partners—and how they view their own futures. Already two committee chairmen (Bernice Johnson and Kentucky Representative John Yarmuth) have made clear their plans to retire. This usually does not happen if there is a belief within the caucus that they will continue to hold a majority.
Even Suozhi’s decision indicates a willingness to land before the ship sinks. He’s entering a very crowded Democratic primary that already includes two titans: Gov. Kathy Hochul and State Attorney General Letitia James. That Suzy sees that race as a better option for her than staying in the House — and is worrying for Democrats desperately trying to maintain their majority next November.
The problem for Democrats is that it all feeds itself into a negative cycle. Members retire because they think the political landscape looks bleak, which makes the political landscape look bleak(er), causing more members to retire, which creates a political climate – well, you get it.
Suozhi’s retirement – in itself – is not a problem. But it is a symptom of the broader issues Democrats will have next year.
,