New Delhi: As we enter the last month of the year, we can safely say that winter has arrived. While temperatures vary widely in different parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday (December 1) said that the period between December 2021 and February 2022 saw above normal in many parts of the northwest. Minimum temperature will be observed. likely to stay above. Most of India, South and North East India and some areas in the foothills of the Himalayas.
Below normal temperatures are very likely to prevail over North Karnataka, parts of Telangana and parts of North Interior Peninsula including Marathwada. In its seasonal outlook for winter temperatures, the IMD said above-normal maximum temperatures would remain below normal in most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest India and most parts of northeast India, where normal to normal. is likely to. High temperatures are most likely to occur.
Stating that weak La Nia conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, the IMD said that its forecast model indicates that La Nia conditions are likely to be strong and moderate to moderate conditions during the upcoming winter season. .
IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said, “At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions persist over Indian Ocean and the latest forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the forecast period.”
Our forecast for above normal rainfall for December to February is over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka TN, Interior Puducherry and Kerala. Below normal rainfall forecast for Northwest India, thus their average temperature is expected to remain above normal: IMD pic.twitter.com/IQCtvARFFB
IMD is using the latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) model for its forecasts this year. It assesses five global models and takes the best of them.
La Nia refers to the large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure, and precipitation. As El Nio, the warm phase of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), usually has an adverse effect on weather and climate.
He said, “Since changes in sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate, the IMD is carefully monitoring the development of sea surface conditions over these ocean basins.” ,” They said. He said that the polar vortex also influences the conditions in India and the ensemble model is responsible for all such factors.
Elaborating on a query regarding the winter temperature forecast, the IMD DG said, “What we are saying is the average for the whole country. This does not mean that the temperature in a given area is below normal. We can’t go below or above the normal that we predicted.”
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