Last week the number of Britons who fell ill with Covid for the first time in a month has declined, according to one of the country’s largest surveillance studies.
King’s College London Scientists running a symptom-tracking app estimated that 69,993 people were getting infected daily for the week ending October 9, down 1.6 percent from 71,111 the week before.
Despite the glimmer of hope, Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist who led the study, warned NHS This winter may face a ‘disaster’ if the high number of cases exceed 55 despite the slowdown.
New cases among school children in England are at their highest level since comparable figures were introduced in autumn 2020, according to separate figures released today by the UK Health Protection Agency.
A total of 1,121 positive tests per 100,000 were recorded in people aged 10 to 19 in the seven days leading up to Sunday.
It comes after more up-to-date data showed cases hit a three-month high yesterday and hospitalizations jumped again – but deaths fell.
The health department’s daily update shows 42,776 positive tests were reported across the country in the last 24 hours, an increase of seven per cent over the previous week. The figure was the highest recorded since July 21, when 44,104 infections were posted and marked the eighth day in a row of rising cases.
Scientists at King’s College London estimate that 69,993 people were getting infected daily for the week ending 9 October, down 1.6 percent from 71,111 the week before.
Coronavirus cases rose in 127 of the 149 officers, with the biggest increases in West Berkshire (92 percent), Darlington (57 percent) and Torbay (50 percent).
The ZOE Covid Study estimated that the number of daily new cases is now falling under the age of 18, but remains high across all age groups. Cases are now steadily increasing in the 35- to 55-year-old age group and are less common among those aged 18 to 35 and over 55 years.
In terms of prevalence, cases are highest in Wales, the Midlands, the North West and the North East. They have been falling steadily in Scotland since the beginning of October.
UKHSA surveillance reports showed that the highest case rates were in people aged 10 to 19 (1,121 per 100,000), five to nine (574 per 100,000) and 40 to 49 (465 per 100,000).
The ZOE Covid Study figures are based on data from approximately 750,000 weekly contributors.
It is estimated that the number of daily new cases is now falling below the age of 18, but remains high across all age groups. About 32,000 new cases were reported daily in Under-18s last week.
Cases are now steadily increasing among 35- to 55-year-olds and are less common in those 18 to 35 and older than 55.
The prevalence of Covid is highest in Wales, the Midlands, the North West and the North East. They have been falling steadily in Scotland since early October.
As of Monday, about 1,900 people per 100,000 people were thought to be infected in Wales, compared to fewer than 1,100 in Wales.
Professor Spector said: ‘The UK is slowly waking up to the fact that Covid cases are very high, but the reality is they have been increasing for months and many countries have put us on their red list.
‘Infection is more common in young people, and is spreading among 35- to 55-year-olds. If these creep in over 55 it could spell disaster for the NHS this winter.
‘This week a major UK care home provider has confirmed that, based on our research, they now include cold-like symptoms on their visitor forms to prevent potential Covid cases from entering their facilities.
‘This is a bold move as it goes against official government guidance, but will ultimately save lives, and hopefully others will follow suit.’
He said: ‘With so many cases, it is clear that herd immunity is not happening, and the risk is that most people assume they are safe if they have Covid or a vaccine.
‘ZOE data shows that vaccine protection decreases over time and that only one natural infection gives only 64 percent protection, so we need to do everything possible so that everyone is double vaccinated and protected against natural infection. Waiting for herd immunity to happen through the medium can be stopped.
Meanwhile, the UK’s latest surveillance report from the Health Protection Agency today showed the number of Covid cases increased by 13 per cent over the past week.
The data is based on official testing whereas the King’s College London/ZOE study is derived from symptoms and is more up-to-date.
Coronavirus cases rose in 127 of the 149 officers, with the biggest increases in West Berkshire (92 percent), Darlington (57 percent) and Torbay (50 percent).
Two regions saw a drop of more than 20 percent in infections: Herefordshire (23 percent) and North Lincolnshire (22 percent).
Case rates rose across all age groups, with the biggest jump in people aged 70 to 79 (33 percent), 60 to 69 (32 percent) and over 80 (23 percent).
The highest case rates were in people aged 10 to 19 (1,121 per 100,000), five to nine (574 per 100,000) and 40 to 49 (465 per 100,000).
Dr William Welfare, HSA’s Director of Events, said: ‘Covid cases are high across the country and are increasing slowly.
‘As winter approaches, help protect yourself from covid and flu by washing your hands regularly and wearing a mask in crowded places. When meeting people inside, open windows and doors to ventilate the room.
‘If you are offered a vaccine for covid or flu, please take it. If you have any symptoms of Kovid-19, then get a PCR test done.
The figures also show that the rate of Covid hospital admissions in England increased from 5.7 per 100,000 people to 6.0 per 100,000 as of 10 October.
The admission rate was highest in north-east England, at 10.0 per 100,000 people. The highest admission rate continues for those aged 85 and above.
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