Dr. Abdullah bin Musa Al Tayer
In diplomatic terms, it can be said that delegations from countries negotiating the Iranian nuclear program have returned to their capitals to consult and seek directions. However, the Vienna negotiations would fail miserably with words lacking diplomacy, and each returned his capital lamenting his fate.
The White House felt frustrated, sometimes draped in diplomatic terms, and threatened with other options. While a White House spokeswoman said the Iranian administration did not come to Vienna with positive proposals, and confirmed that President Biden was sticking to the diplomatic option, the US Secretary of State warned Iran that “the path of diplomacy is becoming more and more narrow”. ,” and put Iran before two clear choices; either back down and fully follow the Comprehensive Action Plan, or face other methods the United States will resort to.
In conjunction with the Vienna talks, Iran was put under severe pressure on several axes, as it was forced to bow down in Lebanon, instructing Hezbollah to accept the resignation of George Kardahi. ballistics, and news of the assassination of Iranian advisers involved in support. The Houthis, after failing to disrupt election results in Iraq and Iraq, were forced to direct their agents to sit with Muqtada al-Sadr, and its borders with Afghanistan. In addition to all this, it faces threats from Israel at various levels.
Together, these failures forced Iranian negotiators and decision-makers to act harshly under the influence of obstacles, losing their ability to negotiate positively at the negotiating table. Was she convinced she had nuclear weapons secrets, so she entered the conversation with confidence in her nuclear capabilities, imposing her own terms, taking advantage of the partisan divide in America, and President Biden in her party’s fulfillment. Stick to the agreement. promises, and to prove that he is with his predecessor, Donald Trump, who withdrew from the deal on May 8, 2018 AD? Or did the extreme pressures placed on Iran militarily and strategically make it hesitant in its decisions and cautious in its actions, and therefore more motivated than reactive in negotiations?
Whatever the reasons for the toughness of the Iranian negotiator, he felt in Vienna that he was tweeting outside the herd, and he saw in his Russian and Chinese behavior and in the concurrence of delegations from Russia, China, Britain. , France and Germany, and in the absence of the United States that the Iranian delegation should return to their capital to inform the supreme leader of the revolution on the reality of the complexities, and on the international situation on Iranian reluctance. The Supreme Leader will have to make the difficult decision of backing the delegation with positive resolutions that make possible the withdrawal of the nuclear deal that the White House hopes, dreams and requests, or whether the Iranians declare that they will withdraw. are unable to with their nuclear program, and everyone will go to hell.
I highly doubt the second option; Iran is not a country that confronts its enemies with such frankness, but it remains an option, at least in theory.
Iran’s problem is not with the comprehensive plan that is being negotiated, nor with the countries it is negotiating with, including the US. Rather, it has complicated household calculations that he can’t overcome. A return to the nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions initiated by President Trump will mean Iran will enter a new era it has not prepared for 40 years, one open to the world, which radicals reject and call it the most Considers a great danger. revolution and governance, and so they are hard-pressed to market their ability to defend sovereignty and interests. Iran internally, and presents justification that rejects Tehran’s positions in Vienna to the US and the P5+1 group. Iran’s openness to the world is disturbing radicals in the Wilayat al-Faqih regime, threatening their interests, and warning them of globalization and the transition to Western cultural hegemony in Iran, destroying those taboos. With whom he ruled over four people. decade.
If the regime has stalled for so long because of the isolation of Iran from its regional environment and its contemporary world, its openness to any pretext will trigger the internal change that the regime fears. Therefore, hiding behind slogans of death for America, a curse on the Jews, and continued interference in the affairs of Arab countries, unites the Iranian public against an imaginary threat targeting their country, and the Revolutionary Guards hold its own. Gives proper strength to strengthen. on Iran.
The regime receiving a nuclear bomb in Iran would not directly threaten Iran’s neighbors, nor would it threaten Israel, but possessing this strategic weapon would annoy members of the Nuclear Club, including Israel, and in turn it would harm the regime. Will protect and extend its life. , reiterating the experience of North Korea living out of the context of history since 1948.
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