Analysis: Why Russian and Chinese warships rendezvous to encircle Japan is a big deal

But analysts say the exercises are likely to have the opposite effect, potentially reigniting regional tensions and increasing the Japanese government’s claims that it needs to increase military spending to counter the Chinese aggression.

The voyage, billed as the first joint Sino-Russia naval patrol in the western Pacific, saw the ships sail through the Tsugaru Strait, which separates the main island of Japan and the northern island of Hokkaido, the country’s east coast. and then back to China via the Osumi Strait from the southern Japanese island of Kyushu.

Although foreign ships are allowed to pass through the sumi and Tsugaru Straits, both treated as international waters, the maneuver was closely monitored in Japan.

Drew Thompson, a former United States Department of Defense official, said, “This would reinforce the conclusion that Japan has already understood that China potentially poses a threat to Japan and therefore needs to increase its defense spending and You have to increase your preparedness to deal with this.” Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

In a statement on Monday, Japan’s defense ministry described the exercises completed last week as “unusual”.

The Sino-Russia Flotilla consisted of five warships from each country, with a mix of destroyers, frigates, corvettes and support ships.

The Chinese military said the two navies parted ways in the East China Sea on Saturday. “The joint exercises and joint cruises further developed the Sino-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era, and effectively improved the capabilities of both sides of joint operations, which jointly promote international and regional strategic stability.” was conducive to maintaining it,” Rear Admiral Bai Yaoping of the People’s Liberation Army’s Northern Theater Command and deputy commander of the Navy said in a statement.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said the purpose of the joint patrol was “to display the state flags of Russia and China, to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and to protect the facilities of maritime economic activity of the two countries”.

Britain's HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier pictured in the South China Sea

Japan’s military construction

Tensions between China and Japan have escalated in recent years, amid Beijing’s moves to claim sovereignty over the Japanese-controlled islands.

China is also increasing its military pressure on nearby Taiwan, sending dozens of warplanes near the island. Japanese officials have previously tied the security situation in Taiwan to Japan, noting that 90% of the energy used by Japan is imported through areas around Taiwan.

Although Japanese military spending is lower than that of China, it has gone on to significantly strengthen its defenses, including state-of-the-art F-35 fighter jets and converting warships into aircraft carriers for them.

It is also in the process of adding high-tech destroyers and submarines – all of which can launch their power off Japanese shores.

The reach of Japan’s Self-Defense Force was evident on Monday, as a warship that will eventually be prepared to carry an F-35 – the helicopter destroyer JS Kaga – conducted bilateral exercises with the US Navy’s aircraft carrier strike group in the south. The China Sea, almost all of which China claims as its sovereign territory.

And in the summer, Japanese naval forces trained with their counterparts British Carrier Strike Group 21, led by the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, As well as with US Navy ships in the Pacific.

Alessio Petlano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London, said Beijing has kept a close eye on such incidents, and the joint Russian flotilla is a sign from China that it has partners as well.

“This summer, the US and partner navies have significantly elevated the level of interoperability in the Western Pacific,” he said. This is a weakness for the Chinese, so joint patrols seem to be a response to that.

Russia and China have an ongoing military partnership and have conducted a series of joint exercises, the most high-profile of which was “Vostok 2018, a mock battle in which a Russian-Chinese alliance fought an imaginary enemy.”

And in August, Russia and China once again joined forces to use a joint command and control system, with Russian troops integrated into Chinese formations, according to a statement from China’s defense ministry at the time.

China’s ‘hypocrisy’

The route taken by Chinese patrols through the Osumi Strait at the end of their journey, as well as the narrow Tsugaru Strait between the main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, earlier in the week, has also attracted considerable attention.

that’s because when US Navy or foreign navies cross the Taiwan Strait Between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland, Beijing describes them as destabilizing.

For example, after US and Canadian warships crossed the Taiwan Strait earlier this month, the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command called on both sides to “provoke crisis” and “seriously endanger peace and stability”. accused of collusion.

And 100 miles (160 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Taiwan is much larger than the route between the Japanese islands. For example, the Strait of Osumi is just 17 miles (27 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point.

While the Chinese and Russian warships were not in violation of international law, a news segment broadcast on Chinese state TV showed how close they came to Japanese territory.

A reporter on one of the Chinese ships is shown passing through the Tsugaru Strait as the Japanese coastline stretches behind it.

Later, after crossing the strait, the reporter states, “We are now in the Western Pacific, and we cannot see the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force aircraft far behind us. They have been following us since the start of our patrol. In addition to aircraft, they also sent several ships to track our formation to gather intelligence.”

Thompson said China cannot support one thing and then act in the opposite way.

“You either support the norms or you support the politics of power,” he said of the leadership in Beijing. “It makes his toxic anti-foreign rhetoric extremely hypocritical.”

So if it’s good for China and Russia, it should be fine for the US, Canada, and other navies that sail in the Taiwan Strait – or even the South China Sea.

“They are establishing that this is a very accepted international norm,” Thompson said.

CNN’s Vasco Kotovio, Nectar Gan, Emiko Jozuka, Mayumi Maruyama and Yong Jeong contributed to this report.

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