Silver lining before 2024 elections? Why Nitish Kumar Dumps BJP For Saffron Party In Bihar ‘Opportunity In Disaster’ – Bharat Times Hindi News

Nitish Kumar announced his break with the BJP, it is being seen as a setback for the saffron party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, a closer examination of the political dynamics in the state reveals that the situation is not as gloomy for the party, which had long played a second role to “big brother” Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United).

The big issue the saffron party is grappling with in the state is that it has no leader who can match the stature of Nitish Kumar. Despite having cadres in almost every village in the state, the BJP lacks a leader with strategic skills like Devendra Fadnavis or a street-fighter attitude like Suvendu Adhikari.

“Under Nitish Kumar’s charge and huge political personality, the BJP has failed to produce its own leader in the state. But now the party is free to prepare anyone from its stables,” said Sanjay Kumar, professor, Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

“Hopefully, in the next Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, the BJP will go almost alone. Coming out of the alliance may be a setback in the short term, but it suits the saffron party’s long-term ambitions. BJP leaders have realized that staying in alliance would have affected their larger political objectives in the state,” Kumar said.

Another major worry for the BJP ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections will be the anti-incumbency wave. In 2024, the BJP will have completed a seven-year run in power, which started in 2017. Nitish Kumar Came out of the grand alliance to join hands with the BJP and become the Chief Minister again.

Political experts who follow Bihar’s story believe that the breakdown of ties will now dispel the headache of public disillusionment and fatigue.

Political analyst and researcher Manisha Priyam told CNN-News18, “The BJP today feels that it does not want to care about the anti-incumbency wave of Nitish Kumar’s rule.” Referring to BJP’s recent decision, Priyam said, “When JP Nadda and Amit Shah came to Bihar this time, I think for the comfort of their cadre, they declared that they would probably win 200 seats on their own. will fight.” Its members have sought feedback at the grassroots level on 200 assembly seats in the state.

Former JD(U) spokesperson Dr Ajay Alok also agreed with this assessment. He tweeted, ‘BJP should not regret this breakup, instead it should distribute laddoos in Bihar as it will no longer be blamed for the failure of this government.

Furthermore, in opposition, it would be free to aggressively project its pet Hindutva and nationalism agenda. Sanjay Kumar said, “I think nationalism, saving the country and national pride will be the biggest issue on which BJP will fight the 2024 elections.”

A sign of things to come was on Tuesday given by former deputy CM and Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Modi, otherwise known to be close to the Bihar chief minister. “We made him CM despite having more seats and never tried to break his party. We only broke those who betrayed us. In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena betrayed us and we have to face the consequences,” Modi said, pointing to the possibility of aggressive politics by the saffron camp.

Besides, the issue of ‘betrayal of mandate’, allegations of nepotism and corruption against Lalu Prasad’s family, old statements by Nitish Kumar, JD(U)-RJD antagonism are enough ammunition to give BJP political fireworks. will provide.

But won’t it be a challenge for the BJP to go it alone against the new grand alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections? “What happened in 2014? We were not with JD(U) but still NDA got 31 (out of 40) seats. What happened in Uttar Pradesh despite SP joining hands with Congress and BSP? Did we lose seats? Are you gone?” Questioned former BJP MLA Rameshwar Chaurasia.

Chaurasia told CNN-News18 that this break-up has “opened up a good opportunity for the BJP in Bihar”. Further, emphasizing on the organizational strength of the BJP, he said, “BJP has an army of workers, we do politics 24 hours a day, go to villages among people, which other parties are not doing”.

The JD(U)-BJP divorce has opened the way for more seats for the BJP. She was contesting on fewer seats out of the total 243 seats in the state assembly. In 2010, the party was allotted just 102 seats as against 141 seats going to JD(U). In the last assembly elections in 2020, the BJP was given 110 seats to contest against 115 seats to the JD(U).

However, the strike rate of BJP has been great as compared to Nitish Kumar’s party. In 2010, BJP candidates won 91 out of 102 seats i.e. strike rate of 89% versus JD(U)’s 82% hit rate. In the last assembly elections of 2020, with a victory in 74 seats, the BJP’s strike rate of 67% was the best among all the parties. Compared to BJP, the strike rate of alliance JD(U) was only 36% as it managed to win just 43 seats.

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