Ivo Dalder, former US ambassador to NATO, is president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Dalder”.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sends a nuclear warhead across the bow, announced earlier this month that if problems worsen, “our country will introduce tactical nuclear weapons or create them on its own.”
And his remarks should set off alarm bells in Washington and allied capitals across Europe and Asia.
Yoon’s statement – which he stressed did not constitute official policy – came in response to a highly combative speech by North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un in December. Already after a year in which North Korea tested more missiles of all ranges than in the previous 12-month period, Kim announced that Pyongyang Start “Large-scale production of tactical nuclear weapons,” leading to “an exponential increase in the country’s nuclear arsenal”. And some would be surprised if he decided to conduct a seventh nuclear weapon test this year.
Whether formally recognized or not, the fact is that North Korea is a nuclear-armed state with dozens of warheads and the ability to launch them at short, medium, and long ranges—including the possibility against the continental United States. is included.
Diplomacy will not reduce its nuclear capability. Over the past three decades, the US has led several efforts – both in collaboration with other countries and through bilateral summit diplomacy – to persuade a succession of North Korean leaders to implement a 1991 pledge to denuclearize the peninsula. to do. But there has been no serious diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang since the failed meeting between Kim and former US President Donald Trump four years ago.
Instead, nuclear tensions on the peninsula are rising dramatically – with Yoon now raising them a bit further.
To be sure, the South Korean president was not suggesting that he supports a nuclear arms race – although he warned, “Given our scientific and technological capabilities, we could very quickly obtain our own nuclear weapons.” Huh.” Rather, given the growing nuclear missile threat from North Korea, Yoon was sending a message to Washington that Seoul was concerned about the credibility of America’s security commitment.
Part of the concern stems from Trump’s years of shock, during which the former US president repeatedly questioned the need to maintain troops in Korea or maintain a security alliance. But part of it also comes from a changed security environment – not least from the fact that the US is now vulnerable to a nuclear strike from North Korea.
And this vulnerability raises a question, long familiar to European allies, about whether the US would be willing to sacrifice Seattle to save Seoul when faced with the prospect of nuclear retaliation.
Thus, in his statement, Yoon made it clear that the best way to ensure South Korea’s security was to strengthen its alliance with the US and prevent war in the first place. And one way to do that, the South Korean president suggested, would be to return US strategic nuclear weapons, which Washington unilaterally withdrew from South Korea in 1991. Failing that, however, he left open the possibility of Korea developing its own nuclear deterrent.
Washington is well aware of the dilemma this poses. One reason he committed to embracing defense alliances and extending a nuclear umbrella to allies in Europe and Asia first was to persuade them to rely on American nuclear weapons for their defense rather than their own. to develop.
And this strategy has been incredibly successful.
In 1963, the then US President John F. Kennedy warning A “world in which 15 or 20 or 25 countries could have these weapons” within a decade is widely believed to be likely, if not inevitable. Thankfully this did not happen, and in nearly 60 years, only five other countries – China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea – have become nuclear powers. One of the main reasons for this was the firm commitment of the US to maintain a nuclear umbrella for its allies.
But Yoon’s nuclear warning sends an important message to Washington – and allied capitals in general: As the security environment becomes more challenging, so does the need for alliances to adapt.
We have just seen two important examples of this. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO responded by strengthening its defense and deterrent posture in Eastern Europe, approved membership applications from Finland and Sweden, and significantly increased its long-term defense spending commitments.
And earlier this month in Washington, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced important steps to strengthen the US-Japan security alliance, including closer consultations on the US nuclear posture, as well as the US presence in Japan. Redeployment and reorganization of Marines. , In return, Tokyo has committed to double its defense spending over the next five years.
Security Alliances in the Nuclear Age Huh Nuclear alliance – a reality that has been ignored for too long, not least since the end of the Cold War nuclear confrontation by the European and Asian allies. Today, everyone should be reminded of this reality by the thundering of Russia’s nuclear saber and North Korea’s commitment to rapidly increase its nuclear capability.
that Yoon’s nuclear warning had real meaning.