In a year marked by a devastating second wave COVID-19The all-cause mortality rate in Kerala is likely to touch a record high, with the highest number of January-June deaths recorded in recent years in 2021.
In the first six months of the year, Kerala recorded 1,55,520 deaths – a 35 per cent jump from the same period (1,15,081 deaths) in 2020, a year of the Covid-imposed lockdown, and a 21 per cent jump from 2019. Toll (1,28,667 deaths) in the first six months of the pre-pandemic year.
The all-cause mortality rate is the total number of deaths including official COVID deaths.
Data from the state’s chief registrar of births and deaths show that the months of May and June this year saw a sharp increase in recorded deaths as compared to the same period in previous years.
June 2021 was the worst in terms of mortality in recent years, with the state reporting 32,501 deaths – a 57 per cent jump compared to 20,640 deaths reported in June 2020 and 20,642 deaths recorded in June 2019 .
In May this year, the state recorded 28,684 deaths – a jump of 33.4 per cent in May 2020 (21,488 deaths) and a jump of 24.8 per cent as compared to 22,984 deaths recorded in May 2019.
In these two months, Kerala also reported the highest number of daily Covid-19 deaths, around 150-200 deaths a day. From May 1 to July 1, the state recorded 7,927 deaths – not including numbers added after the health department’s Covid-19 death reconciliation exercise, after hearing appeals from those whose names were not included in the original list of victims. was amended.
Before this, an inquiry by Indian Express The team of journalists suggested an undercount in official COVID deaths across the country. But how much can actually be estimated and that too at least in a year the way India counts its dead.
As part of the investigation, the newspaper had approached several state governments, eight of which, including Kerala, provided records of deaths recorded in April and May this year as per the civil registration system. Data from Kerala showed that after the official Covid deaths were removed from all deaths recorded from April 1 to May 30, 2021, the number was still 1.23 times the figures for the same period in 2019.
Since the start of the pandemic, till December 8, Kerala has reported 41,831 Covid deaths, of which 12,161 have been added through appeals.
The impact of the lockdown on deaths was evident in Kerala in the months of March and April of 2020, when the state reported 16,176 and 13,338 deaths respectively. However, in the same month of this year, this figure increased to 24,632 and 21,231 respectively.
The data showed that the all-cause mortality rate in Kerala in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, dropped to 2,53,638 from 2,70,567 in 2019. However, the first nine months of this year, as of 30 September, have already happened. The registered death toll is going up to 2,12,712.
Sources said the final figures for August and September are likely to be higher in view of the late registration of deaths. According to the statistics department, only 65 per cent of the deaths in Kerala are recorded within the mandatory 21-day period.
The data holds another indicator that indicates that 2021 is set for a record high in all-cause deaths. In recent years in Kerala, the percentage distribution of deaths by month of occurrence showed that the months of July to December have recorded more deaths than the first six months. This trend was visible in 2020 as well, a year when the state reported a decline in all-cause mortality compared to 2019. There are still three months’ worth of data to be recorded in 2021, with experts predicting that the total number will rise once.
Figures for all-cause deaths since 2009 show that the annual figure has been consistently above 2.50 lakh since 2015, a trend that experts attribute to the state’s rapidly growing population.
Kerala’s crude death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 population), which stood at 6.74 in 2009, rose to 7.77 in 2019.
Continually updating the toll with Kerala’s Covid-19 death reconciliation exercise, the state health department was saying that any pandemic should be reviewed on the basis of total deaths under reference, rather than looking only at Covid-19 deaths. Should be known
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