The United Nations predicted on Wednesday that the global Economic Development It will fall significantly this year to 1.9% as a result of the food and energy crisis caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine. covid-19 pandemicContinuously high inflation And this climate emergency.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs painted a gloomy and uncertain economic outlook, saying that the current global economic slowdown “cuts across both developed and developing countries with many risks of a recession in 2023.”
“There is a broad-based and severe slowdown in the global economy amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening and heightened uncertainties,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in the foreword to the 178-page report.
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The report said this year’s forecast of 1.9% economic growth _ down from the projected 3% in 2022 _ is one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades. But it forecasts a moderate pick-up to 2.7% in 2024 if inflation gradually abates and economic headwinds begin to subside.
In its annual report earlier this month, the World Bank, which lends money to poor countries for development projects, nearly halved its growth forecast, down to just 1.7% from a previous estimate of 3%.
The International Monetary Fund, which provides loans to countries in need, projected in October that global growth would slow from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. He said 2023 would be a tough year, but stuck to the projection, saying “we don’t expect a global recession.”
According to the UN report, this year “growth has weakened in the United States, the European Union and other advanced economies, adversely affecting the rest of the world economy.”
The United States is projected to expand GDP by only 0.4% in 2023, following a projected 1.8% growth in 2022, the UN said. And many European countries are forecast to experience “a mild recession”, with the war in Ukraine moving into its second year on 14 February, higher energy costs, and inflation and tighter financial conditions depressing domestic consumption and investment.
The United Nations said economies in the 27-nation European Union are projected to grow only 0.2% in 2023, down from an estimated 3.3% in 2022. And in the United Kingdom, which left the EU three years ago, GDP is forecast to contract by 0.8% in 2023, continuing a recession that began in the second half of 2022.
With China’s government abandoning its zero-COVID policy late last year and easing monetary and fiscal policies, the United Nations projects that its economy, which expanded only 3% in 2022 was, will increase to 4.8% this year.
“But the reopening of the economy is expected to be bumpy,” the UN said. “Growth will likely be well below the pre-pandemic rate of 6-6.5%.”
Japan’s economy is expected to be one of the better performers among developed countries this year, with GDP forecast to grow by 1.5%, up from last year’s projected growth of 1.6%, a UN report said. A little less.
In East Asia, the UN said the economic recovery remains fragile, although GDP growth is forecast to reach 4.4% in 2023, up from 3.2% last year, and stronger than in other regions.
In South Asia, as a result of high food and energy prices, “monetary tightness and fiscal weaknesses”, the United Nations estimates that average GDP growth will decline from 5.6% last year to 4.8% this year.
But growth in India, which is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year, is expected to remain strong at 5.8%, slightly lower than the projected 6.4% in 2022, “higher interest rates and investment and exports due to the global recession,” the UN report said.
In West Asia, oil-producing countries are benefiting from higher prices and rising production as well as a revival in tourism, the United Nations said. But economies that are not oil producers remain vulnerable “given access to international finance and severe financial constraints,” and average growth in the region is projected to slow from an estimated 6.4% in 2022 to 3.5% this year.
The UN said Africa has been “hit by a number of shocks, including weak demand from major trading partners (especially China and Europe), a sharp rise in energy and food prices, rapidly rising borrowing costs and adverse weather events.”
One result, it said, is rising debt-service burdens that have forced an increasing number of African governments to seek bilateral and multilateral support.
The United Nations projects economic growth in Africa to slow from an estimated 4.1% in 2022 to 3.8% this year.
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In Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN said the outlook “remains challenging”, citing labor market prospects, extremely high inflation and other issues. It is projected that regional growth will slow to just 1.4% in 2023 from a projected expansion of 3.8% in 2022.
“The region’s largest economies – Argentina, Brazil and Mexico _ are expected to grow at much lower rates due to tighter financial conditions, weaker exports and domestic weaknesses,” the UN said.
For the world’s least developed countries, the United Nations said growth this year is projected to be 4.4%, the same as last year, but well below the United Nations’ target of 7% by 2030.