Voting predictions on Saturday point to a small but narrow lead for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) over Merkel’s party, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The SPD and the CDU, the two largest parties in German politics, have been sharing power under Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor.
CDU leader Armin Laschet, the party’s next chancellor and candidate for North Rhine-Westphalia’s premiership, held a final campaign rally with Merkel in Aachen on Saturday.
A boy presented 67-year-old Merkel with a gingerbread heart emblazoned with the words “Thanks CDU” and another supporter gave her a cake decorated with a picture of his trademark rhombus hand gesture.
The Social Democrats’ rival candidate, Olaf Scholz, is holding his last rally in his constituency in Potsdam on Saturday. Scholz has served as Chancellor and German Finance Minister since 2018.
FDP leader Christian Lindner ends his election campaign with rallies in Cologne and Düsseldorf.
According to the latest polls, the Social Democrats are voting at 25.2% and may score a 4.7 percentage point compared to the 2017 national elections. This increase could mean a reversal of a 20-year-long downward trend for the Social Democrats. In the past two decades, the party has lost almost half of its electorate.
Polls indicate that the Christian Democrats are trailing behind the SPD by about 22.4% by several percentage points. This could mean a loss of 10.5 percentage points compared to the 2017 national elections and 19.1 percentage points compared to the 2013 elections.
The Greens are currently in third place with 15.9% of the vote. However, the Ecumenical Party may register the strongest growth of all parties in the next federal election, with a potential lead of 7.5 percentage points over the previous national elections in 2017. The leader of the Greens, Annalena Berbock, has emerged as a contender. The chancellor and potential kingmaker in coalition talks are expected to follow Sunday’s vote.
Germany’s business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) is polling at 11.1% and according to election predictions, is expected to gain only marginal gains compared to previous national elections.
The far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AFD) is voting at 10.6% – a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the 2017 national elections.
The AfD – which saw a remarkable success in the 2017 elections following an influx of refugees into Germany in 2015 – has struggled to maintain its momentum and has faced harsh criticism over its overly far-right ties.
The closeness of the race coupled with Germany’s complex voting system means that it can take some time for a winning coalition to be formed and the eventual winner known.
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