Analysis: How low will Biden go?


The Q poll marks the lowest number ever for Biden in his presidency – and is part of a months-long hiatus for the president.

There is no real debate over whether Biden’s position with the American public is bad. Democrats have to ask themselves the question of whether it will get worse and, if so, how bad.

The answer, given recent history, appears to be that Biden is nearing his lowest potential upside.

In January 2019, Gallup data gave Donald Trump the worst job approval rating of 37% ever. Barack Obama’s low point was 40% in August 2011. (He hit that number several times in early 2014.)

Those numbers suggest that, almost no matter what happens, Biden’s approval rating is unlikely to drop all that far below where it currently is.

The nightmare scenario for Biden (and his party) is the presidency of George W. Bush, who saw his approval rating drop to 25% in October 2008 amid the global financial crisis. But that was also a very different time. ā€” Bush was three months away from the end of his second term (with two midterm elections already under his belt), while Biden is less than a year away from his first midterm.

However, barring that kind of massive global collapse, it looks like Biden’s approval may not come close to where Bush found himself.

The problem for Biden and his party is that even though he is now close to his polling nadir, he still needs to start bouncing back — and quickly.

Historically, seat losses for the president’s party in midterm elections, when the president’s approval rating is less than 50%, have been in the upper 30sā€”a change that would give Republicans not only a majority in the House, but a majority. Will also give comfortable margin from which to rule.

Point: Yes, less than a year is left for the 2022 election. But the approval rating of the president usually doesn’t change much over a short period of time. Democrats need Biden to step down from the bottom and start climbing back ā€” and soon.