The rainfall surplus over the country as a whole has increased to 47 per cent for the period 1-24 October, with the southern peninsula itself receiving 63 per cent more rainfall than the long period average from the concurrent north-east monsoon. There are indications that the amount of rain may increase at least during the next fortnight (till December 8).
As per model guidance from India Meteorological Department (IMD)-Global Forecast System, Global Ensemble Forecast System, NCMRWF Unified Model, National Environmental Prediction, this phase may also see the onset of a new depression, which may further strengthen . Is. Model and European center for medium-range weather forecasting.
another storm is brewing
An extended forecast by the IMD covering this week and the next (November 24-December 8) said that the southern peninsula and adjoining central India (including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands) will occur in the first week ending December 1. is likely to. More rain than usual. Lakshadweep) and below normal for hills of North-West India and North-Eastern States.
Light to moderate scattered/very widespread rainfall will continue over South Peninsula during most days of the second week (December 2-8). Heavy rain is very likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Kerala in the second half of the week. Rainfall may be above normal or excessive over South Peninsula, East and North-East India.
Till Thursday, the IMD had refused to classify a cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal as a low pressure area, although the Sri Lankan Meteorological Department said that a low pressure area has formed in the south. had gone. east of the island nation and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.. but the IMD said it sent a powerful battery of rain-driven east wind regime.
For the last few days, strong winds are blowing along Tamil Nadu and adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts and rain has started in many parts including Chennai.
heavy rain forecast
Light to moderate scattered/very widespread rainfall will occur over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during the week ending December 1. Rain reigns in Maharashtra.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday; Heavy to very heavy rain from Saturday to Sunday; There was heavy rain at different places on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Friday and Saturday and heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Sunday and Monday.
Depression can intensify
Heavy rain is very likely over Kerala and Mahe till Wednesday and over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A low pressure area is very likely to form over South Andaman Sea around Monday. It may concentrate into a depression, intensify and move north/northeastwards towards central and adjoining North Bay (and possibly not towards Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh coasts). The model consensus gives a ‘moderate’ probability for this event.