2024 Polls: Biden falls behind with younger voters

A new poll from NBC News this weekend shows President Joe Biden in his worst position yet — with no signs of clearer skies ahead.

The sitting president now trails his likely 2024 challenger, Donald Trump, among voters nationally; despite the ex-president’s ongoing legal escapades, Mr Biden trails his opponent 46-44.

The reason for his continued slide is clear: Americans are quickly souring on the president’s handling of US foreign policy and America’s presence on the world stage. The spiraling conflict in Israel has only served to turn America’s youngest voters, long a Democratic-leaning demographic, against the president as seven in ten voters age 18-34 disapprove of Mr Biden’s response.

His approval rating is now at 40 per cent — the lowest recorded by NBC at any point during Mr Biden’s presidency. This poll also marks the first time Mr Biden has trailed Mr Trump in an NBC survey.

A massive generational divide in the US has grown in recent weeks amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Older generations have largely favoured the status quo in Washington, where politicians have lined up in defence of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere.

Younger Americans have split widely in favour of the US calling for a ceasefire in the region, and largely oppose the recent campaign of Israel’s military which has caused a steep civilian death toll in the Gaza Strip.

Polling, collected from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics shows that President Joe Biden is, as expected, leading the Democratic 2024 polls by a large margin.

So far, only two other candidates have declared their intent to run for president as a Democrat – self-help author Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips.

President Joe Biden – Approximately 71 per cent

Marianne Williamson – Approximately 8.2 per cent

Dean Phillips – Approximately 4.7 per cent

Ron DeSantis has said he thinks both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are too old to run the country as the president celebrates his 81st birthday today.

Speaking to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday, the Florida governor and 2024 hopeful claimed that he is in the “prime of my life” while his two rivals are far from it.

“I just think that that’s something that has been shown with Joe Biden. Father Time is undefeated. Donald Trump is not exempt from any of that,” he said.

Former president Donald Trump is more popular with younger voters, polling from NBC shows.

When asking voters, aged 18 to 34, which candidate they would vote for in a matchup, 46 per cent said Mr Trump while only 42 per cent said Mr Biden.

The findings could pose a problem for Mr Biden, who was able to win the presidency in 2020 in part thanks to younger voters.

NBC’s poll reflects similar results found by a recent CNN poll but shows opposite results to polling from Quinnipiac, New York Times, Fox News and more which indicate Mr Biden has a strong lead with younger voters.

GOP presidential contender Nikki Haley would beat both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

Ms Haley is the only GOP candidate who would beat Mr Biden in the state, the poll showed, with Ms Haley getting 45 per cent to Mr Biden’s 39 per cent. Mr Trump, on the other hand, is five points behind Mr Biden in the poll.

The poll by Emerson College surveyed 917 registered voters between 10 and 13 November. Ms Haley is up 14 points compared to August, while Mr DeSantis is down 10 points since March.

Donald Trump has a strong lead in the second 2024 contest and the first nation primary in New Hampshire.

The poll also shows that Mr Trump’s former UN ambassador, ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, has nabbed the second spot in state at this stage of the race, with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie also rising in the field, taking third place.

Mr Trump isn’t doing as well in New Hampshire as he is nationally but still gets 42 per cent support in the state among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.

Twenty per cent say they would back Ms Haley at this time, and 14 per cent are supporting Mr Christie.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who started out the race as Mr Trump’s main rival, gets single-digit support, coming in fourth at nine per cent.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy garnered the backing of eight per cent.

Ms Haley’s support has grown by eight points compared to September, Mr Ramaswamy has dropped by about five points and the support for Mr Trump and Mr Christie has remained mostly steady.

A two-day poll that finished on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 51 per cent of the 1,006 adults polled across the country backed President Joe Biden, with 49 per cent supporting his predecessor Donald Trump.

About half of all Biden backers said they were voting for the president to keep Mr Trump out of the White House rather than to give Mr Biden another term.

Meanwhile, only 38 per cent said they would vote “to support Joe Biden and his policies”.

Among those backing the ex-president, 42 per cent said they were voting in support of Mr Trump and 40 per cent said they were voting against Mr Biden.

Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr received 20 per cent in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump in a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos.

Thirty per cent backed Mr Biden in the poll, with 32 per cent supporting Mr Trump.

The online poll collected the views of 1,006 US adults across the country.

President Joe Biden would win the popular vote but narrowly lose the Electoral College to his predecessor Donald Trump if the election was held today.

The new research comes from Stack Data Strategy, showing that Mr Trump would win the Electoral College 292 to 246 with Mr Biden winning the popular vote 49 to 48 per cent.

Stack surveyed 15,000 Americans and used those results to make state-level projections, Politico notes.

Mr Trump winning is based on him winning four states– Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These were the states with the closest margins in the 2020 election. They all went from Mr Trump in 2016 to Mr Biden in 2020 and this poll sees Mr Trump take them back by small margins – 1,4 per cent in Arizona, 3,3 in Georgia, 2,3 in Pennsylvania, and 0,9 in Wisconsin.

If other candidates are added to the mix – such as independents Robert F Kennedy Jr and Cornel West, and candidates from the Green and Libertarian parties – Mr Trump also manages to win Nevada and its six electoral votes. The additional candidates together picked up 10 per cent in that state.

The survey also showed Mr Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

But Mr Biden bested Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, winning the Electoral College 359 to 179.

In the four tight states projected to go to Mr Trump, when respondents are asked about “other” candidates, they pick up a smaller share of the vote – 4 per cent in Arizona, 2,6 in Georgia, 3,1 in Pennsylvania, and 3.2 in Wisconsin.

But when respondents were asked specifically about Mr Kennedy, Mr West, and the availabilities of third parties, the support rose to between eight and 11 per cent.

After the third Republican debate last week, voters are re-assessing how they feel about the remaining GOP candidates.

Ron DeSantis is polling at approximately 14 per cent.

Nikki Haley is polling at approximately 8.8 per cent.

Chris Christie is polling at approximately 2.8 per cent.

Vivek Ramaswamy is polling at approximately 5 per cent.

Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum and Ryan Binkely are all polling below 1 per cent.

So far, former president Donald Trump remains far ahead of any other candidate in national polls with a +44 point average over his political opponents, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. 

Mr Trump did not participate in the third debate and instead hosted a rally nearby the venue where Republican candidates hashed it out.

Despite the ex-president’s opposition toward joining his fellow candidates on the stage, he has a strong lead in swing states over any other campaign – including Democrats.